En enero de 2025, la economía de EE. UU. mostró señales mixtas, evidenciando tanto fortaleza como nuevos desafíos en múltiples sectores.
Trends in Business Activity and Employment
The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to 52.4 in January from 55.4 in December, reaching its lowest point since April. Even with this reduction, the index stayed above the 50 mark, suggesting ongoing expansion. The deceleration was mainly due to the services sector, whereas manufacturing saw growth for the first time in seven months, spurred by anticipated loosened regulations and reduced taxes under the current administration. Remarkably, businesses ramped up hiring at the fastest pace in two and a half years, reflecting optimism about future economic conditions.
Confianza y Gasto del Consumidor
In January, consumer confidence decreased for the second month in a row. The Conference Board announced a drop in its consumer confidence index to 104.1, down from 109.5 in December, which did not meet economists’ predictions. This decline illustrates increasing worries among Americans about present economic circumstances and future outlooks. Despite increased borrowing expenses, retail sales climbed by 0.4% in December, showing strong consumer spending over the holiday period. However, perceptions of current job market conditions became less optimistic, and short-term forecasts for income, business, and employment diminished, nearing levels that might indicate a possible recession.
Expectativas de Inflación y Política Monetaria
Las expectativas de inflación entre los consumidores han aumentado notablemente. La encuesta de sentimiento del consumidor de la Universidad de Michigan mostró que la inflación anticipada para el próximo año ascendió a 3.3% en enero, frente al 2.8% en diciembre, alcanzando el nivel más alto desde mayo. Las expectativas de inflación a largo plazo también subieron a 3.3%, el más elevado desde junio de 2008. Estas expectativas crecientes podrían influir en la inflación real, ya que las empresas podrían sentirse más justificadas en aumentar los precios. En respuesta a estos desarrollos, se espera que la Reserva Federal mantenga la tasa de fondos federales dentro del rango objetivo de 4.25% a 4.50% en su próxima reunión, adoptando un enfoque cauteloso en su política monetaria en medio de preocupaciones persistentes sobre la inflación.
Dynamics of the Labor Market
The labor market continues to be strong, with initial claims for unemployment benefits increasing modestly by 6,000 to 223,000 for the week ending January 18, 2025. This slight rise indicates that layoffs are still minimal, even as job openings become rarer as employers exercise caution in expanding their workforce. The labor market’s strength bolsters the Federal Reserve’s choice to halt further interest rate reductions while it evaluates the needed length of restrictive monetary policy to reach a neutral interest rate.
The labor market remains robust, with initial claims for unemployment benefits rising slightly by 6,000 to 223,000 for the week ending January 18, 2025. This marginal increase suggests that layoffs remain low, even as job opportunities become scarcer due to employer caution in expanding headcounts. The resilience of the labor market supports the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause further interest rate cuts as it assesses the necessary duration of tight monetary policy to achieve a neutral rate of interest.
Financial Markets and Investor Sentiment
Financial markets have exhibited volatility in response to mixed economic data and corporate earnings reports. Major indexes closed lower, with the technology sector leading the downturn. Strong housing market data contrasted with a slowdown in business activity, while consumer sentiment declined. Investors are closely monitoring these indicators ahead of key economic releases and the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. The prospect of potential inflation stemming from proposed tariffs has also contributed to market uncertainty.
